Ecuador’s presidential election

Yesterday, elections were held in Ecuador. The votes are being tallied to see if a second round will be required in the presidential contest. By rule, to be declared the winner after just one round, a presidential candidate must receive 50% of the votes, or else he or she must receive 40% of the votes and outdo the next vote-getter by 10%.

This year, it’s close. As of this writing, the top vote-getters are Lenín Moreno with 39.08% and Guillermo Lasso with 28.43%.

Moreno is the candidate of the ruling party. He served as Rafael Correa’s vice president from 2007 to 2013. Lasso, a banker, was Correa’s closest opponent in the election of 2013.

My Facebook “friends” who discuss Ecuadorian politics tend to belong to the upper crust, and their aim is to get the socialistic ruling party out of office. They have nightmares of Ecuador turning into something like corrupt, disorganized, impoverished Venezuela. Thus they oppose Moreno. What Lasso stands for is not their focus.

My own views – impressionistic, not scientific – are that Ecuador is a society that needs large-scale economic redistribution (socialistic or otherwise); that although Ecuadorian socialism depends on unreliable, unsustainable revenue from oil, as Venezuelan socialism does, Ecuador will not cast its lot irrevocably with oil as Venezuela has done; and that the ruling party has shown far more competence than any other recent party.

There also is the question of authoritarianism, a charge frequently brought against Correa’s regime. To be sure, Correa has exhibited more than a dash of authoritarianism in his personality. But everything I’ve read suggests that the opposite is true of Moreno. Indeed, he has concerns that are very unusual for a politician. (For a few examples, see this article from 2013.) Moreno seems to exhibit genuine goodness – a quality which, in this age of Donald Trump, the world may finally decide it needs its politicians to have.

I must sleep now. From afar, these are my thoughts.